It’s Election Day – Get Out and Vote

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  • It’s all about the election – nothing else.

  • All eyes are on the Senate – they have abandoned the House.

  • Trump will make a “big” announcement next week.

  • Joey is preparing the country for “vote counting days” – don’t expect many answers tonight.

  • Try Honey Cornbread for your Thanksgiving table.

Shares rose again yesterday at the start of the week – The Dow Jones up 423 pts or 1.3%, the S&P up 36 pts or 1%, the Nasdaq up 90 pts or 0.8%, the Russell up 10 pts or 0.5% while Transport gained 265 pts or 2%.

There was no economic news to fuel the movement, but there is plenty of political news to help stir the pot…..How much damage will the Democrats take? Will the GOP take both the House and the Senate? Just a fyi – Joey is still running on the idea that Democrats will take seats in both houses of Congress to maintain even more control over the country – which speaks directly to him about being a little out of touch – every poll picked up on the 6th months has highlighted a change in leadership in the House and more recently in the Senate.

The races are very tight – so don’t expect answers tonight…..the President and the MSM are already preparing us for a long, long period of “vote counting”. In effect, Joey is preparing the country for “days” of vote counting before verification takes place. December 6 has already been identified as the run-off date for all questionable races. (Think GA again). And to add even more chaos to the picture – we had Donny threatening to confirm his status as ‘presidential candidate for 2024’ – the announcement will be made next week (15) from his home in Mar-a-Lago .

The news that Nancy was considering retirement was trending all day on Twitter – saying the recent attack on her husband prompted her to make that decision… which I might ask –
Ummm, isn’t that just a little weird… is it the attack on Paul or is it the fact that she’s about to lose her job as Speaker of the House? The thought of losing that job and simply becoming a “member” of the house again is too much to bear…because even the role of Minority Leader surely does not belong to him. Because in the final analysis – a lot of the beatings the Democrats are going to take can and will be pinned on her, Chucky and Joey (and Bernie, Alexandra, Lizzie and “the team” who, by the way, have all become oddly dark, it’s like they fell off the radar screen, poof! Gone!).

I mean listen everyone wishes Paul Pelosi a speedy recovery violence is never the answer but let’s be honest – the truth is it will be the loss of his job after the GOP takes control of the house that will drive this decision – even her own caucus would not support her in the role of minority leader and it would be too much to bear. Now all she has to do is get that ambassador job in Italy and she’ll be fine. She just needs to get rid of the current ambassador – Cindy McCain. Oh, it’s a tangled web we’re weaving…remember – Cindy McCain is a Republican.

Now the bulls have returned over the past week… taking comfort in the fact that history will most likely repeat itself and we will find the markets higher in 3, 6 and 12 months. The polls reflect what much of the country feels (and knows) – prepare for a GOP victory and if that’s true – then prepare to see the out of control spending come to a screeching halt. And it will be fine…causing traffic jams in DC. Many are saying that if we see a GOP sweep and then a halt to all that fiscal spending, it could push the country into an even deeper recession — but that’s just the narrative Democrats want you to believe. In the end, a divided government would probably be the best outcome (imo) because it would bring both sides together while eliminating the fringes of both sides (think far left and far right).

Look at inflation is top of mind for investors and voters – so a change in leadership will be seen as good and that’s what the market is telling you. Listen – inflation is rising – and although this month’s report may show a slight drop – I think it’s just a flash in the pan… I don’t think we’ve peaked for the instant.

Now there are 3 possible outcomes – Democrats retain control – 0% chance Congress splits from GOP in control of the House, leaving Democrats in control of the Senate – I give this a 50% chance of getting happen, while the end result would be a full GOP congressional sweep and I give a 50% chance of happening. So it’s really split – and with 34 Senate seats up for re-election – it’s really up to GA, FL, PA and NV to see who retains or takes control of the Senate. Additionally, there are the Governor races which will also change the complexion of the political landscape – so it is and will be a very exciting day for the country.

US futures are flat in the morning… the Dow Jones up 50 points, the S&P up 2, the Nasdaq up 22 and the Russell up 4. And while there are key data on earnings today don’t expect them to drive the action at all….it will be speculation on who will take GA, AZ, NV and PA to the senate with who wins the gubernatorial positions in NY and AZ. And while the Chamber is important, the polls have basically presented the results and it looks like the country has moved on.

Treasuries are holding up without making any dramatic moves so far….

Oil is trading down $1.2 at $90.60 a barrel. Don’t ask – it’s the whole story of the recession putting pressure on oil prices again… as China reiterates its zero covid restrictions policy. It’s exhausting.

European markets are mixed with regional markets between -0.2% and +0.2%.

The S&P closed at 3806 – up 36 points. The change in leadership most likely leading to this final rally – the extent of the next move depends on the extent of the beating the Dems have suffered…. This is all very complicated, but remember that politics doesn’t fix long-term stock prices, a strong economy does.

Sit tight as a long-term investor – stick to the plan – I suspect we’ll see that year-end rally if we see a U-turn in Congress…. Look beyond the next 6 weeks and instead focus on the next 6-12 months….. Look at the mega cap, the multinationals that are generating good cash flow, paying nice dividends and can weather the storm. Remember – buy the STPN (Stuff that People Need). Energy, healthcare, consumer staples, utilities, and some big mega tech – NOT social tech!

Old Fashioned Honey Infused Cornbread

Cornbread is one of those things that everyone remembers…I mean, who doesn’t love cornbread? When it comes out of the oven, spread some butter and a glass of cold milk – it reminds me of when I was a child – doesn’t it?

For this you need: 1 1/4 cups buttermilk (or whole milk), 1 stick butter – melted, 1 1/2 cups cornmeal – medium grind is best – it will give you that taste hearty grainy – 1/2 cup flour, 1 1/2 tsp. baking powder, 1 tbsp. salt, 1 tsp. sugar, or a little more if you like it sweeter, 1 egg and a little honey.

Preheat the oven to 375 degrees.

Melt the butter in the microwave.

Mix the dry ingredients in a bowl. Mix the egg in the buttermilk or milk. Mix well then add to the dry ingredients. Add the butter. (If it seems too dry, add a little more milk) Pour the batter into greased muffin tins or a greased cake pan. Tap the counter to remove any air bubbles and now place in the oven.

Bake for about 20 minutes, then push the knife in – if set, it will come out clean. Otherwise, cook a little longer. You want the top to be lightly browned while the sides have come away from the pan.

When you take it out of the oven – use a fork and poke holes in it…everywhere – don’t destroy it, just poke holes. Now squeeze out the honey and spread it over the top of the hot cornbread – allowing the honey to be absorbed through the holes. Serve it on your Thanksgiving Day table.

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