Projection of lower global cereal carryover in 2023


LONDON – World ending stocks of cereals in 2023 will total 581 million tonnes, down 27 million tonnes, or 4.4%, from the revised 608 million tonnes in 2022, according to an initial forecast published on April 21 by the International Grains Council. If realized, the carryover would be the lowest since 553.7 million tonnes in 2015.

The Council called its preliminary forecast for 2022-23 “particularly tentative given the conflict in the Black Sea region”.

“Despite larger carry-in stocks, global grain supply (production plus opening stocks) is expected to contract slightly due to a comparatively steeper decline in production, nearly 1% lower from a year earlier. on the other at 2,275 million tonnes. While consumption growth is expected to be slower than average, end-of-season stocks are expected to fall sharply.”

At 2,275 million tonnes, production in 2022-23 would be down 12 million tonnes from 2021-22. Consumption was forecast at 2,302 million tonnes, up 21 million tonnes, or just under 1%, from the previous year. World grain trade was forecast at 407 million tonnes in 2022-23, down 17 million tonnes, or 2.2%, from 416 million tonnes in 2021-22.

The most significant factor in the projected decrease in carry-over was an expected drop in corn. The Council said 2023 maize ending stocks will total 265 million tonnes, down 21 million tonnes, or 7%, from 286 million tonnes in 2021-22. Corn production in 2022-23 was forecast at 1,197 million tonnes, down 13 million tonnes, or 1%, from 1,210 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks for 2023 were forecast at 277 million tonnes, down 5 million tonnes, or 1.8%, from a year earlier. The global wheat harvest is expected to be stable at 780 million tonnes in 2022-23, from 781 million tonnes in 2021-22.

The IGC has not released specific figures for major grain exporters, including Ukraine and Russia.

“Despite forecasts of slower-than-average growth in feed and food uses, linked to potentially high prices and resulting demand rationing, global consumption is set to reach a new high,” the Council said. “At 581 million tonnes at the end of 2022-23, global stocks are forecast to fall by 26 million year-on-year, mainly due to tight corn and wheat. World trade is expected to fall for the second consecutive year, down 2%, to 407 million tonnes. »

For 2021-22, the changes in the IGC’s forecast from the March 17 report were modest. Total grain carryover in 2022 was forecast at 608 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from the previous month and 1% from 2021’s 601 million. Wheat carryover was forecast at 282 million tonnes , up 1 million tonnes from the March projection and up 3 million tonnes, or 1.1%, from 279 million tonnes in 2021.

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