The downward pressure continues – AgFax

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© Debra L Ferguson Stock Photography

When markets are geared towards war, little can change a bottom trajectory.

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS:

Thursday’s export report was notable for cattle and hogs, although it did not help either of their markets trade higher. Meanwhile, feeder cattle contracts continue to slide as the market absorbs another rally in the corn complex.

May corn is up 25 1/4 cents a bushel and May soybean meal is up $12.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 299.73 points and the NASDAQ is down 220.10 points.

LIVE CATTLE:

The Live Cattle Complex opened an exciting export report early Thursday morning, but the market hasn’t seen much more excitement since then. April Live Cattle is down $0.85 at $136.72, June Live Cattle is down $0.80 at $133.15 and August Live Cattle is down 0 $.52 to $135.10.

While canned beef prices may be extremely close to bottom (as midday prices are higher for choice and choice) and the market warmly welcomes any export interest, the pressures of war and a lousy cattle market keep market bull spreaders at bay. The country has yet to see renewed interest in the spot market, but the packers have had success again with this week’s market, unfortunately.

Northern cattle are mostly selling for $220, down $4.00 from a week ago, and southern live cattle are selling for $138, down $2.00 from a week ago. Nonetheless, until the market can move beyond the hotbed of war, the downward pressure is likely to persist.

Net beef export sales of 27,500 metric tonnes (mt) for 2022 – a high for the trade year – were up 16% from the previous week and 36% from the four-year average. previous weeks. The three biggest buyers were China (10,400 t), Japan (6,400 t) and South Korea (3,700 t).

Canned beef prices are higher: choice up to $1.32 ($254.02) and choice up to $2.42 ($247.21) with a choice/selection spread of $6.81 and a move of 69 loads (29.51 pick loads, 8.03 pick loads, 3.99 topping loads, and 27.00 lots of ground beef).

FEED CATTLE:

Corn jumps higher and feeder cattle lower. The cat and mouse game between grain prices and the feeder cattle complex is intense as feeder cattle contracts receive no support from the live cattle sector.

Not only is the feeder cattle market seeing its complex future collapse due to input cost issues, but throughout the campaign buyers are extremely wary of buying feeder/calves, as the market is too volatile to play with any risk. March departures are down $1.80 at $152.25, April departures are down $3.00 at $157.15 and May departures are down $3.45 at $162.47.

LEAN PIGS:

The Lean Pork Complex is trending lower in its April contract, but the rest of the Lean Pork Complex is trending slightly higher. April Lean Hog ​​is down $1.00 to $100.15, June Lean Hog ​​is up $0.37 to $114.30 and July Lean Hog ​​is up 0, $50 to $113.55. Although the complex did not have a strong export report, it was interesting to see China as a buyer again this week.

With rising feed prices in China, their ability to continue growing their national herd is being tested by rising input costs. Sound familiar? Spot prices and hog cut values ​​are lower midday as packers were aggressive in the spot market earlier in the week and hog cut values ​​appeared to be somewhat stagnant at the moment.

Net pork export sales of 25,400 metric tonnes for 2022 were down 40% from the previous week and 4% from the previous 4-week average. The three biggest buyers were Mexico (12,800 t), China (3,600 t) and South Korea (2,100 t).

The CME Lean Hog ​​Index forecast for 03/09/2022 is up $0.65 at $99.91 and the actual index for 03/08/2022 is up $0.26 at $99.26. Hog prices are lower on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $0.42 with a weighted average of $101.56, ranging from $96.00 to $112.00 on 4,298 head and an average five-day rolling $98.50. Pork cuts total 152.50 loads with 136.27 loads of pork cuts and 16.23 loads of trimmings. Pork Cuts Values: $0.97 drop, $106.77.


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