WASDE raises forecasts for Aus wheat and barley

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The T-Ports Wallaroo facility receives its first-ever shipment of barley on November 9, and exports from the Yorke Peninsula site in South Australia are expected to begin in mid-2023. Photo: T-Ports

INCREASE in Australian wheat and barley export forecasts and reductions for Argentina are among the headlines of the USDA’s November report on global agricultural supply and demand estimates (WASDE) released on Friday.

For Australian wheat, the USDA now forecasts 2022-23 production of 34.5 million tonnes (Mt), up 1.5 Mt from the October estimate, and exports are now estimated at 27 Mt, up 1 Mt over the month.

WASDE cites above-average rains in Australia over the past month as helping crop development and boosting yields following widespread favorable conditions earlier in the growing season.

Conversely, Argentina’s wheat crop estimate was lowered due to persistent widespread drought for most of October, which further eroded yield potential, particularly in the northern regions.

The USDA now forecasts Argentina’s 2022-23 wheat crop at 15.5 Mt, down 2 Mt from the October figure, with forecast exports plunging 2.5 Mt to 10 Mt.

The global wheat outlook for 2022-23 calls for increased supplies, consumption, trade and ending stocks.

Supplies are forecast to increase by 1.3 Mt to 1,059 Mt, based on increases in opening stocks and production.

World production is increased by 1 Mt to 782.7 Mt, with higher production in Australia, Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom more than offsetting declines in Argentina and the European Union.

World use of feed and residual wheat increased by 900,000 t, with increases in the EU, South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam more than offsetting a decline in India.

However, the estimate for world wheat consumption for food, seed and industry is down 1.5 Mt, mainly due to declines for Bangladesh and Indonesia.

The global wheat trade forecast is up 300,000 t to a record 208.7 Mt, mainly due to higher exports from Australia, Kazakhstan and the UK which more than offset a reduction in exports from Argentina.

Projected world ending stocks are also up by 300,000 t to 267.8 Mt, with increases for Australia and India and a decrease for the EU explaining most of the change.

Australian Barley Lift

In estimates for coarse grains, the USDA raised its forecast for Australia’s barley exports in 2022-2023 from 500,000 t to 7.2 Mt for barley, with production now at 12, 7 Mt, also up 500,000 t.

Conversely, barley export outlook from Argentina fell by 500,000 t to 3 Mt, with production estimate down by 600,000 t to 4.5 Mt.

Australia is seen as the world’s largest barley exporter in 2022-23, ahead of the EU with 6.3 Mt unchanged and Russia with 5.5 Mt, down 500,000 t from the figure forecast in October .

Regarding sorghum, the USDA raised the Australian export forecast from 300,000 t to 2.4 Mt.

The USDA outlook for U.S. corn for 2022-23 calls for higher production, higher feed and residual use, and higher ending stocks, with supply increasing more than use.

World coarse grains production for 2022-23 is forecast to be slightly lower at 1,459.5 Mt.

Non-U.S. maize production is expected to fall as declines in the EU, South Africa, the Philippines and Nigeria are partly offset by increases in Angola, Mali, Pakistan, Turkey and Senegal.

Maize production in the EU is down based on a drop for Hungary. South Africa is reduced due to a lower planned area.

Key global trade shifts include lower maize exports for South Africa.

Maize imports are reduced for Vietnam, Algeria and Turkey.

Regarding imports, China should now import 9Mt of barley, ie 500,000t less than in October.

Source: USDA

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